宏观专题研究：美国补库仍在进行，欧洲去库尚未结束

Group 1: US Inventory Trends - US nominal inventory growth has increased from 0.3% at the beginning of the year to approximately 2.5% by July 2024, indicating the early stages of a replenishment cycle[1] - Durable goods inventory growth rose from 1.8% in January to 2.6% in July, while non-durable goods saw a significant narrowing of decline from -8.4% to -3.2%[1] - Actual inventory growth for the private sector, manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers was 2.0%, 1.6%, 0.2%, and 4.7% respectively in Q2 2024, showing a notable increase from Q1[1] Group 2: European Inventory Status - Europe remains in a destocking phase, with inventory changes negatively impacting GDP, reaching a low of -0.8% in Q1 2024[1] - Most industries in Europe are still experiencing declining inventory levels, with pharmaceuticals, transportation equipment, and furniture showing particularly low levels[1] - The recovery in European inventory is expected to be slower than in the US due to ongoing economic challenges and a delayed response to monetary easing[1] Group 3: Export Implications - The initiation of the replenishment cycle in the US and Europe is likely to positively impact China's export growth, historically correlated with inventory cycles in developed economies[2] - Key sectors to watch for export growth include electrical equipment and labor-intensive products like furniture and toys, which have low inventory levels[2] - However, potential trade barriers and a slow global economic recovery may limit the extent of inventory replenishment and its positive effects on exports[2]