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周度策略:中央政治局会议释放重磅信号,市场有望企稳回升
Zhongyuan Securities·2024-09-29 01:32

Group 1 - The Central Political Bureau meeting signals a potential economic stabilization and recovery, emphasizing the need for increased counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary policy adjustments [5][6][7] - The meeting highlighted the importance of issuing long-term special government bonds and local government special bonds to enhance government investment [6][7] - The meeting also called for a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and significant interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy [6][7] Group 2 - Multiple significant policies were introduced by the central bank, financial regulatory authority, and securities regulatory commission to support economic growth and stabilize the capital market [2][3][6] - The central bank plans to lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [7][8] - The policies include lowering existing mortgage rates and unifying the minimum down payment ratio for first and second homes to stimulate the real estate market [8][9] Group 3 - The U.S. core PCE price index for August met expectations, indicating a potential for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [16][17] - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of the year, depending on economic conditions [16][17] Group 4 - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as semiconductors, home appliances, consumer goods, real estate, and non-ferrous metals as potential investment opportunities due to the anticipated market stabilization [18]