2024年计算机行业四季度投资策略：三重底已现，信创与新质吹响反攻号角

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Overweight" [2][3] Core Views - The computer industry has formed a triple bottom, with expectations of stabilizing and recovering profit margins. The dual drivers of demand and policy for "Xinchuang" (information technology innovation) and new productivity are expected to boost growth, alongside ongoing advancements in AI and cloud computing technologies [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Review - The computer sector has experienced a significant decline, with the index dropping 32.17% from January 1 to September 23, 2024, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 25.67% [6][11] - The industry has been in a bottoming phase, with major companies showing better resilience compared to smaller firms. Profit margins are near the breakeven point, indicating limited room for further decline [8][16] 2. Direction One: Xinchuang and Huawei's Computing Ecosystem - Supportive policies for Xinchuang are being introduced, facilitating regular procurement and accelerating large orders. The focus is on critical sectors such as government, finance, and energy [37][38] - The Huawei computing ecosystem is evolving, becoming a core market player, which is expected to drive rapid development in the sector [37][41] 3. Direction Two: New Productivity in Vehicle Networking and Low-altitude Economy - Emerging technologies like vehicle networking and low-altitude economy are receiving strong policy support, with local enthusiasm remaining high despite short-term market focus waning [3][4] - Key companies in this area include Tongxingbao, Qianfang Technology, and Les Information, which are positioned to benefit from these developments [3][4] 4. Direction Three: AI and Cloud Computing - Breakthroughs in AI models and the surge in computing power are driving the industry towards long-term growth. The demand for high-quality data is increasing, and self-generating data trends are emerging [3][4] - Recommended companies in the AI sector include iFlytek, Hongsoft Technology, and Wanjing Technology, which are expected to benefit from these advancements [3][4] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main areas: Xinchuang, new productivity, and AI. Specific stock recommendations include Kingsoft Office, Softcom Power, and iFlytek, among others [3][4] 6. Valuation and Fund Positioning - The current valuation of the computer industry is at a historical low, with the PE ratio at 31.84, placing it in the 2.75% percentile over the past five years, indicating high investment value [23][27] - Fund allocation in the computer sector has decreased to 2.62%, reflecting a low allocation compared to historical levels [34][36]