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【粤开宏观】对近期政策讨论的思考:财政如何接力?
Yuekai Securities·2024-09-29 02:00

Group 1: Economic Challenges and Policy Responses - Since Q2 2024, China's economy has faced downward pressure, with total demand insufficient and real estate and capital markets remaining sluggish[2] - The Politburo meetings emphasized the need for "sustained and stronger" macro policies, indicating a commitment to stabilize the economy, real estate, and stock markets[2] - Fiscal policy is expected to play a more significant role than monetary policy during economic downturns, necessitating preparation for Q4 2024 and 2025 fiscal measures[2] Group 2: Policy Considerations and Recommendations - Avoid oversimplifying counter-cyclical adjustments as mere "stimulus" or "flooding" of the economy; a nuanced approach is essential[3] - Investment and consumption should not be viewed in opposition; both are crucial, and the focus should be on the allocation of resources rather than the binary choice of one over the other[3] - Fiscal policy should prioritize spending growth over maintaining a strict deficit target of 3%, allowing for more effective counter-cyclical measures[13] Group 3: Specific Fiscal Measures - Proposed measures include issuing additional government bonds, expanding the use of special bonds, and providing targeted subsidies to specific groups such as unemployed graduates and rural elderly[15] - The report suggests that cash subsidies for specific groups could be more effective than broad cash distributions, which may lead to inflation and are financially unfeasible[11] - The need for a "real estate stability fund" is highlighted to support housing market stability and restore consumer confidence in property purchases[15]