Group 1 - The report outlines three phases of A-share market rebounds after historical lows: initial phase driven by policies, mid-phase driven by fundamentals, and late phase influenced by fundamentals and external events [9][11][16] - The current market uptrend is still in the initial phase, likely to continue in the short term, primarily driven by significant positive policies and external events [16][18] - Historical data shows that mid-phase rebounds have the strongest magnitude, averaging a 71% increase and lasting around 131 trading days [9][11] Group 2 - Economic recovery expectations are likely to persist, with infrastructure projects continuing and real estate policies being relaxed, which may improve investment and sales post-holiday [18] - The report indicates that liquidity trends are expected to improve significantly, with domestic monetary easing measures already in place [18] - The report suggests that risk appetite may continue to rise due to positive policies and stable external environments, with limited risks anticipated during the holiday period [18] Group 3 - The report recommends focusing on financial real estate, technology growth, and core assets in the short term, as these sectors are expected to outperform during the initial rebound phase [18] - It highlights that the valuation repair logic is dominant in the short term, with high-growth small-cap stocks in technology, electric vehicles, pharmaceuticals, and cyclical sectors likely to catch up in the mid-phase [18] - The report advises investors to accumulate positions in core assets benefiting from policy support and expected economic recovery, as well as sectors likely to rebound due to rising market sentiment [18]
底部上涨的持续性和节奏如何?
Huajin Securities·2024-09-29 02:04