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策略周刊:如何看待9月政治局会议影响:政策转向积极,助力市场上涨
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-09-29 02:03

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 12.81% this week, closing at 3087.53 points[2] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 17.83% during the same period[2] - The ChiNext Index saw a significant rise of 22.71%, with a single-day increase of 10% on Friday[2] Policy Impact - The September Politburo meeting indicated a shift towards more proactive economic policies, reflecting a stronger urgency to stabilize the economy[2] - The meeting emphasized the need to address economic difficulties and achieve annual development goals, marking a notable change in policy tone[2] - Unlike the "08 flood-like stimulus," the current approach focuses on targeted and effective measures to support economic growth[2] Future Considerations - The upcoming National People's Congress at the end of October will be crucial for determining the issuance of special bonds, which will influence market trends[3] - The outcome of the U.S. presidential election on November 6 will impact export chains and geopolitical risks, affecting market stability[3] - The December Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference will play a decisive role in shaping the nature of the current market rebound[3] Investment Recommendations - Sectors closely related to economic growth, such as cyclical and consumer stocks, are expected to be the main focus for investment[4] - Real estate stocks and downstream consumption are likely to be key themes, given the strict control on new housing projects[4] - Mergers and acquisitions, particularly among state-owned enterprises, are highlighted as significant investment opportunities[4]