软饮料行业研究报告——存量竞争中的头部企业战略之路

Industry Overview - The soft drink market has entered a phase of stock competition, with a significant slowdown in growth since 2017, marking a shift from the previous 20-year golden period of steady growth with a CAGR of 17.8% [10] - Despite challenges, the industry showed resilience with total production maintaining a high level of 17,690 million tons in 2023, though the CAGR slowed to -0.5% [10] - The beverage industry achieved a notable growth of 6.0% in 2023, outperforming the overall fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market, which saw a mild decline of 0.5% [4] Consumer Trends - The top three beverage categories with the highest CAGR from 2014 to 2022 were ready-to-drink coffee (12.3%), functional drinks (8.1%), and packaged water (5.6%), driven by their addictive, functional, and essential attributes [16] - Health-conscious consumers are increasingly favoring low-sugar and sugar-free beverages, with the market share of sugar-free tea drinks rising from 1.5% in 2017 to 6.5% in 2022 [20] - The sales of sugar-free beverages in China surged from RMB 1.66 billion in 2014 to RMB 15.86 billion in 2022, with an 8-year CAGR of 32.5% [23] Competitive Landscape - The soft drink industry is highly concentrated, with listed companies accounting for 32.3% of the market share, and leading players like Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Tingyi (Master Kong), and Nongfu Spring dominating the market [27] - Tingyi (Master Kong) leads in distributor count with over 70,000 distributors and 600,000 retail outlets, far surpassing competitors [29] - Nongfu Spring has implemented significant distributor reforms, focusing on high-quality distributors and leveraging digital systems like the NCP system to enhance terminal control and operational efficiency [36][37] Channel Evolution - Offline grocery stores remain the primary sales channel for soft drinks, accounting for 66.6% of sales in 2023, while online channels are rapidly growing, with platforms like Douyin, Tmall, and JD.com increasing their share by 1.5% over two years [14] - Tingyi (Master Kong) has undergone multiple channel reforms, including regional refinement and efficient channel management, to expand its market coverage and improve terminal control [33] - Nongfu Spring has optimized its distribution network by reducing overlapping regions and channels, enhancing price control, and strengthening channel management [36] Product Innovation - The rise of large-format beverages has been notable, with sales increasing by 4.9% from 2019 to 2023, driven by their cost-effectiveness and practicality for group consumption [12] - Traditional mid-sized bottles remain the dominant format, accounting for 54.9% of sales in 2023, while small bottles saw a decline of 4.5% over the same period [12] - Functional and addictive beverages, such as energy drinks and ready-to-drink coffee, continue to gain traction due to their unique ingredients like caffeine and taurine, which enhance consumer loyalty [18]