商贸零售行业2024年半年报总结：黄金珠宝长期景气度高，线下零售韧性依旧

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the retail trade industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1]. Core Views - The retail sector in the first half of 2024 saw a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, with a slowdown in growth observed in June [2][9]. - The jewelry sector is experiencing short-term sales pressure due to fluctuating gold prices, but the long-term outlook remains positive [3][22]. - The offline retail performance is mixed, with department stores and convenience stores showing better growth compared to the overall industry [26][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Review - In the first half of 2024, the total retail sales amounted to 23.60 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. The growth rate in June was 2.0%, with July showing a slight increase to 2.7% [2][9]. - Online retail sales grew by 8.8%, with a penetration rate of 25.3% [9][10]. 2. Fund Holdings - In Q2 2024, the retail trade sector's public fund allocation was 0.12%, a decrease of 0.108 percentage points from Q1 2024. The total market value of holdings in this sector was 2.837 billion yuan, down 50% from the previous quarter [13][16]. - The allocation ratios for sub-sectors such as professional market operations and jewelry increased, while others saw a decline [16][19]. 3. Sub-industry Fundamentals - The gold and jewelry sector faced challenges with a national gold consumption of 523.75 tons in H1 2024, down 5.61% year-on-year. Retail sales in this sector grew by only 0.2% despite a 15% increase in gold prices [22][24]. - Notable companies in the jewelry sector include Zhou Daxing, which has a high dividend yield and low valuation, and Lao Fengxiang, a century-old brand with stable operations [24][25]. - Offline retail performance varied, with companies like Xiao Commodity City and Miniso showing significant revenue growth, while others like Yonghui Supermarket faced declines [28][30].