房地产行业信息点评:第八次降准持续,加速推动行业止跌回稳
Haitong Securities·2024-09-29 03:37

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The People's Bank of China has initiated its eighth comprehensive RRR cut since July 2021, aimed at releasing liquidity and supporting economic stability [4][5]. - Historical data indicates that comprehensive RRR cuts have positively impacted real estate sales, with a recovery period lasting approximately one year following such measures [5]. - The report suggests that the current policy environment is transitioning towards comprehensive easing, which is expected to positively influence the funding situation and sales in the real estate sector [5][6]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Impact - The RRR cut of 0.5 percentage points effective from September 27, 2024, will bring the average RRR to approximately 6.6% [4]. - Historical analysis shows that after previous RRR cuts, the A-share real estate index has had a 56% probability of achieving positive returns within six months [5]. Sales and Market Performance - The report highlights that the current RRR cut is expected to help real estate sales gradually bottom out and recover, benefiting quality companies in the sector [6]. - The report notes that since 2008, there have been 27 instances of RRR cuts, and the A-share real estate index has generally performed well following comprehensive cuts, except during the targeted cuts of 2018 [5][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on blue-chip companies within the real estate sector, including Vanke A, Poly Developments, and China Overseas Development, among others [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring future sales recovery as the policy environment improves [6].