首提“止跌回稳”——9月政治局会议房地产行业相关政策点评

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive shift in the investment rating for the real estate industry, emphasizing a transition from risk mitigation to promoting market stabilization [2][3]. Core Insights - The September Politburo meeting marks a significant policy shift towards stabilizing the real estate market, which has been in decline for three consecutive years, suggesting an improvement in the supply-demand dynamics and overall credit levels in the industry [2][3][6]. - The meeting highlighted the need for strict control over new housing supply, optimization of existing inventory, and enhancement of housing quality, indicating a reshaping of the industry landscape and the acceleration of a new development model [5][6]. - The report anticipates that the combination of supply control and demand stimulation will lead to a recovery in housing prices, benefiting both consumer confidence and economic recovery [6]. Summary by Sections Policy Statements - The Politburo meeting on September 26, 2024, emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market, control new housing supply, optimize existing inventory, and improve quality, alongside increasing loan support for "white list" projects [4][5]. - Compared to previous meetings, the tone has shifted from risk resolution to proactive measures, indicating a more supportive policy environment for the real estate sector [3][5]. Supply-Side Analysis - The report notes that the emphasis on controlling the quantity and improving the quality of housing signifies a significant reshaping of the industry, with a cautious approach to land supply and a potential decrease in new housing starts [5][6]. - The focus on optimizing existing inventory aligns with previous discussions on supporting the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing, suggesting a faster pace in securing such properties [5]. Demand-Side Analysis - The meeting addressed the need to respond to public concerns by promoting demand through various measures, including lowering existing mortgage rates and adjusting housing purchase restrictions, which could enhance consumer purchasing power [6]. - The anticipated adjustments in housing purchase policies, particularly in first-tier cities, could lead to a recovery in housing prices, benefiting the overall market [6]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the combination of improved asset prices and supportive policies will enhance the financial health of real estate companies, leading to a recovery in profitability and overall credit levels in the industry [6]. - The ongoing demand for high-quality housing products and services is expected to benefit developers who can meet these evolving consumer expectations [6].