煤炭行业周报：等待预期照进现实，优选确定性交易机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2] Core Views - The coal industry is expected to maintain high prosperity due to the capacity cycle driven by supply-side reforms, which have significantly reduced excess capacity [36][37] - Short-term demand recovery is anticipated due to pre-holiday stockpiling and winter storage, with a notable increase in procurement activity as the National Day approaches [37] - Long-term expectations are bolstered by the potential return of La Niña weather patterns, which may increase thermal power generation [37] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests waiting for expectations to align with reality while favoring certain trading opportunities. It recommends stocks with strong dividend attributes such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, as well as integrated coal and power companies like Xinji Energy and Huaihe Energy [37] - Other companies expected to benefit include Zhongmei Energy, Jinkong Coal, Shanmei International, Yanzhou Coal, and Guanghui Energy [37] Market Trends - As of September 27, 2024, the average price of Shanxi-produced thermal coal at Jingtang Port is 872.0 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week but a significant year-on-year decline of 116.0 CNY/ton [4][45] - The report notes a decrease in coal inventories at various sample mines, indicating a tightening supply [3][36] Company Performance Tracking - China Shenhua reported a coal production of 27.8 million tons in August 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with total electricity generation rising by 15.3% [38] - Shaanxi Coal achieved a coal production of 13.59 million tons in August 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.06% [39] - Zhongmei Energy's coal production in August 2024 was 11.81 million tons, a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year [39] - Yanzhou Coal's Q2 2024 production reached 34.44 million tons, up 1.79% year-on-year [39] - Shanmei International's Q2 2024 production was 7.87 million tons, down 25.5% year-on-year [39] Price Tracking - The report highlights that the average price of main coking coal in Shanxi is 1,502.0 CNY/ton, down 500.0 CNY/ton year-on-year [59] - The report also notes that the price of thermal coal at various ports and production sites has shown mixed trends, with some prices increasing slightly while others have decreased significantly compared to last year [45][50]