等待预期照进现实，优选确定性交易机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2] Core Views - The coal industry is expected to maintain high prosperity due to the capacity cycle driven by supply-side reforms, which have significantly reduced excess capacity [36][37] - Short-term demand recovery is anticipated due to pre-holiday stockpiling and winter storage, with a notable increase in procurement activity as the National Day approaches [2][37] - Long-term expectations are bolstered by the potential return of La Niña weather patterns, which may increase thermal power generation [2][36] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests waiting for expectations to align with reality while focusing on certain trading opportunities. Recommended stocks include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and integrated coal-electricity companies like Xinji Energy and Huaihe Energy [2][37] - Other companies expected to benefit include Zhongmei Energy, Jinkong Coal, Shanmei International, Yanzhou Coal, and Guanghui Energy [2][37] Market Trends - As of September 27, 2024, the average price of Shanxi-produced thermal coal at Jingtang Port is 872.0 CNY/ton, showing a slight increase from the previous week but a significant year-on-year decline of 116.0 CNY/ton [4][45] - The report notes a decrease in coal inventories at various sample mines, indicating a tightening supply [3][4] Company Performance Tracking - China Shenhua reported a coal production of 27.8 million tons in August 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with total electricity generation rising by 15.3% [38] - Shaanxi Coal achieved a coal production of 13.59 million tons in August 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.06% [39] - Zhongmei Energy's coal production in August 2024 was 11.81 million tons, a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year [39] - Yanzhou Coal reported a significant year-on-year increase in coal production and sales in Q2 2024, with production reaching 34.44 million tons [39] Price Tracking - The report highlights various coal price indices, with the Qinhuangdao thermal coal price index at 714.0 CNY/ton as of September 25, 2024, reflecting a slight weekly increase but a year-on-year decline [42][45] - The average price of main coking coal in Shanxi is reported at 1,502.0 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 500.0 CNY/ton [59]