Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The pork market outlook is weak, with prices continuing to decline. The average price of live pigs is 17.62 yuan/kg, down 4.64% week-on-week. Despite a seasonal increase in demand, market sentiment remains pessimistic due to falling prices and declining profits for pig farmers [1][35] - The planting industry chain is expected to improve due to the gradual commercialization of genetically modified seeds, which are anticipated to enhance productivity and pest resistance. Key beneficiaries include companies like Beidahuang and Su-Kang Agricultural Development [1][34] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on September 26, 2024, emphasizing the need for macroeconomic regulation and support for vulnerable groups, while ensuring food security and agricultural production [1][34] 2. Market Review - The agricultural sector index increased by 15.30% during the week of September 23-27, 2024. The sub-sectors with the highest gains were feed (+17.08%), livestock farming (+16.97%), and animal health (+15.51%) [1][37] 3. Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2275.84 yuan/ton, down 1.83% week-on-week [41] - Wheat: The average price is 2445.97 yuan/ton, down 0.72% week-on-week [44] - Rice: The average price for japonica rice is 3087.20 yuan/ton, down 0.16% week-on-week [47] - Soybeans: The average price is 4284.42 yuan/ton, down 2.08% week-on-week [50] - Cotton: The average price is 14920.00 yuan/ton, up 2.33% week-on-week [53] 4. Livestock Farming - The average price of live pigs is 17.89 yuan/kg, with a significant drop in profits for pig farmers. The profit for self-bred pigs is 368.14 yuan/head, down 20.58% week-on-week [35]
农林牧渔行业周报第37期：市场预期偏弱，猪价环比继续下跌
HUAXI Securities·2024-09-29 08:03