计算机行业周观点：以史为鉴：计算机全面迎来估值修复阶段

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the computer industry is entering a valuation repair phase, with potential for a bull market similar to previous cycles since 2000. The report identifies three stages of a bull market: 1) Upward oscillation period, where individual stock fundamentals may not improve significantly; 2) Upward explosion period, where previous measures yield results and earnings valuations rise; 3) Bubble period, where retail funds accelerate entry despite the end of the profit acceleration phase [2][8][11]. - Historical analysis indicates that the computer sector has not led the market for over a decade, and current favorable policies may catalyze a new bull market, making the computer sector likely to perform well among various sectors [2][14][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Historical Review of Bull Markets - The report reviews four bull markets since 2000, highlighting significant gains: 499.57% from June 2005 to October 2007, 98.94% from October 2008 to August 2009, 161.86% from February 2012 to June 2015, and 46.81% from January 2019 to December 2021 [11][12]. - The report emphasizes that the arrival of a bull market is not necessarily linked to single variables like economic conditions or liquidity but often requires a combination of positive economic expectations and liquidity easing [8][14]. 2. Internet Finance and Other Computer Sectors - The internet finance sector has shown significant gains in previous bull markets, with notable increases in stock prices during the last two bull markets, such as a 3694.96% increase for Tonghuashun and 333.02% for Guiding Compass [3][9]. - As of Q2, the public fund holdings in the computer sector were 49.639 billion yuan, with a slight decrease in holdings, indicating a low allocation compared to other sectors [3][9]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - Cyclical: Tonghuashun, Guiding Compass, Wealth Trend, New National Capital, New Continent - Cloud Computing: Glodon, Kingsoft Office, Mingyuan Cloud, Yonyou Network - Industry IT: Zhongkong Technology, Toptech Software, Focus Technology - Xinchuang: Dameng Data, Nasda, China Software, China Great Wall - Huawei: Softcom Power, Runhe Software, Runda Medical, Digital China, Huafeng Technology - AI: iFlytek, Wanjing Technology, Caixun Co., Zhongke Shuguang [4][10][22]. 4. Market Performance Overview - The computer sector experienced a significant increase, with a weekly growth of 17.74%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.04 percentage points [23][25]. - The report notes that 321 stocks in the sector saw 309 increase in value, indicating strong market activity [28][29]. 5. Valuation Situation - The current PE ratio for the SW computer industry is 53.17, which is below the historical average of 55.41, suggesting that the industry is undervalued compared to its historical performance [35].