零售板块2024Q3业绩前瞻：关注国内高景气赛道，推荐降息受益出海标的

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for key companies in the retail sector, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [3][18]. Core Insights - The offline retail sector shows that essential goods outperform discretionary items, with a focus on high-growth segments. Online consumption and service-related spending have performed better than goods retail, which is still recovering. The report highlights that the performance of department stores is under pressure due to declining average transaction values, while supermarkets demonstrate resilience [2][8]. - Cross-border e-commerce continues to see high revenue growth, although profit margins are temporarily pressured by shipping costs and marketing investments. However, concerns regarding tariffs and shipping fees are easing, and the upcoming promotional season is expected to boost performance [2][28]. - The tools export chain is positioned to benefit from the beginning of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, with expectations of improved demand in the U.S. housing market. The report suggests that companies in this sector are likely to see a recovery in orders and performance [2][29]. Summary by Sections Offline Retail - Essential goods have shown significantly better performance than discretionary items, with August retail sales totaling 3.87 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%. Online retail sales for the first eight months reached 9.64 trillion yuan, growing by 8.9% [8][12]. - The report notes that the performance of department stores is negatively impacted by a decline in customer spending, while supermarkets have shown a 2.1% increase in retail sales [12][17]. Cross-Border E-Commerce - The sector has maintained high revenue growth, with expectations for marginal improvement in profit margins due to easing shipping costs. The report recommends focusing on companies with strong brand resources or supply chain management capabilities [2][28]. - Key recommendations include Anker Innovations and Huakai Yibai, which are expected to benefit from new product trends and market expansions [28][30]. Tools Export Chain - The report indicates that the tools export chain is likely to benefit from the Fed's interest rate cuts, with expectations of improved performance in the housing market driving demand for tools [2][29]. - Companies such as Juxing Technology and Chuangke Industrial are highlighted as key players to watch in this sector, with strong market positions and growth potential [2][29].