A股策略周报：预期上修开空间

Market Overview - The report indicates a shift in policymakers' attitudes towards economic policy and capital markets, with a notable decline in the risk-free rate in the stock market, leading to a significant rebound in risk appetite[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation has room for upward movement, with a current P/E ratio of 13.60, placing it at the 58.6% percentile since 2010[5] Investment Strategy - The strategy suggests a focus on undervalued blue-chip stocks initially, followed by a shift towards growth stocks as the market evolves[1] - Recommended sectors include non-bank financials, technology, and certain consumer stocks, particularly those benefiting from the decline in risk-free rates and improved risk appetite[1] Economic Indicators - The report highlights that the decline in the risk-free rate is crucial for attracting incremental capital into the stock market, especially as the U.S. enters a rate-cutting cycle[1] - The political bureau's recent meeting emphasized a more streamlined policy focus, which is expected to enhance market sentiment and risk preferences[1] Valuation Metrics - The current P/B ratio for the Shanghai Composite Index is 1.27, with a historical percentile of 11.0%, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical standards[5] - The report notes that the market's valuation structure is expected to favor growth sectors and small-cap stocks in the future[5] Risks - Potential risks include policy outcomes not meeting expectations, geopolitical conflicts, and a sharper-than-expected decline in demand[1]