煤炭周报：基本面底部再确认，红利价值再深化

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [1]. Core Insights - The report confirms that the fundamentals of the coal industry are at a bottom, with deepening dividend value expected in the future [1][6]. - The coal price is anticipated to stabilize at a high level after a rebound, with strong support expected at 850 RMB/ton, and a potential rise to over 1000 RMB/ton by 2025 [3][6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report highlights that the coal sector has outperformed the broader market, with coal prices showing an upward trend. For instance, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price rose to 867 RMB/ton, a 0.12% increase week-on-week [5][63]. - The report notes that the coal sector's performance is bolstered by favorable government policies aimed at economic support [6]. Price Analysis - Thermal coal prices have shown resilience, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 price increasing by 0.12% to 867 RMB/ton, while the main焦煤 price at Jing Tang Port rose to 1780 RMB/ton, up 0.56% [5][18]. - The report indicates that the domestic and international coal price differentials are narrowing, with the thermal coal price differential at 26.95 RMB/ton and the main焦煤 price differential at 200.17 RMB/ton [6][60]. Supply and Demand - The report provides insights into supply dynamics, noting an increase in railway input to Qinhuangdao Port, which rose by 29.41% to 484,000 tons, and a significant increase in port throughput by 49.50% to 604,000 tons [35][41]. - The demand for coal is expected to improve, particularly in non-electric sectors, with the methanol and urea production rates remaining high at 87% and 86%, respectively [3][6]. Inventory Analysis - The report indicates a mixed inventory situation, with Qinhuangdao's coal inventory increasing by 8.69% to 5.63 million tons, while key power plant inventories showed a slight decrease [44][48]. - The steel industry also saw an increase in焦煤 and焦炭 inventories, with焦煤 inventory rising by 0.26% and焦炭 inventory increasing by 3.31% [48]. Policy Impact - The report discusses the impact of recent government policies aimed at supporting the coal sector, including a new stock repurchase financing tool to encourage companies to buy back shares, which is expected to enhance the investment value of coal stocks [4][6]. - The report emphasizes that the coal sector's dividend value is likely to be further highlighted due to these supportive policies [6].