地产后周期产业链数据每周速递:8月电热咖啡机、面包机、多士炉、搅拌机出口额同比有所增长
Orient Securities·2024-09-29 10:03

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the paper and light industry in China [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the real estate post-cycle sectors, except for the furniture sector, underperformed the market, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rising by 15.70% [12] - The furniture sector outperformed the market with a growth of 23.08%, while other sectors like lighting, black appliances, and kitchen appliances showed lower growth rates [12] - Domestic retail data indicates a decline in furniture retail sales by 3.7% year-on-year in August, while home appliance retail sales increased by 3.4% [34][40] - Export data shows a 12.0% year-on-year increase in home appliance exports, while furniture exports decreased by 4.5% [35][40] Summary by Sections Market Review - The report notes that the furniture sector is the only one among the real estate post-cycle sectors that outperformed the market, with a significant increase in transaction volumes in sample cities [12][19] - The report provides insights into the performance of various sectors, indicating that the furniture sector's growth was notably higher than others [12] Domestic Sales Data Tracking - Furniture retail sales in August 2024 were 12.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.7%, while home appliance retail sales reached 71.8 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [34][40] - The report also highlights the fluctuation in raw material prices for furniture and home appliances, with TDI and MDI prices decreasing [16][18] Export Data Tracking - In August 2024, home appliance exports amounted to 9.033 billion USD, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, while furniture exports were 4.842 billion USD, reflecting a decrease of 4.5% [35][40] - The report indicates that various small appliance categories saw growth in export values, particularly electric coffee machines and bread makers, while some categories like rice cookers and electric ovens experienced declines [39][40] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines in the real estate post-cycle sector: 1. Clean appliance sector with significant growth potential, recommending companies like Stone Technology and Ecovacs [40] 2. Stable growth companies with high dividend ratios and low historical valuations, recommending Supor, Oppein, and others [40]