海外市场月报：降息交易弱化，关注国内变量

Market Performance - As of September 27, 2024, the Hong Kong stock market led global markets with the Hang Seng Technology Index and Hang Seng Index rising by 25.1% and 14.7% respectively[1] - Other Asia-Pacific markets also performed well, with India's SENSEX30 and Japan's Nikkei 225 both increasing by over 3%[1] - The US stock indices maintained high levels, with gains ranging from 1.5% to 2.5%, while European markets showed mixed results, with Germany's DAX and France's CAC40 rising by 3.0% and 2.1% respectively, and the UK's FTSE 100 declining by 0.7%[1] Economic Indicators - The US Federal Reserve opened a rate cut channel with a 50 basis point reduction in September, but the future path remains uncertain[1] - The US economy is currently in a "Goldilocks" phase, with September's Markit Services PMI at 55.4, above the expected 55.2, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[1] - Initial jobless claims were reported at 218,000, lower than expected, and the core PCE year-on-year growth for August was 2.7%, matching expectations and slightly above the previous value of 2.6%[1] Investment Strategy - In the context of weakening rate cut expectations and significant domestic policy support, it is recommended to focus on Hong Kong stocks and the Renminbi[2] - For Hong Kong stocks, high dividend sectors and flexible consumer internet sectors are suggested for investment[2] - US stocks are expected to maintain high-level fluctuations under the soft landing assumption, with a focus on defensive assets like the Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices[2] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, which could lead to tighter liquidity from central banks and impact equity market valuations[2] - A downturn in global economic conditions could negatively affect market performance[2] - Escalation of geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts in the Middle East or Ukraine, may heighten global risk aversion and lead to market volatility[2]