东方战略周观察：如何看待日本自民党总裁选举结果

Election Overview - The current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced he will not run for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidency due to declining public trust influenced by political funding scandals[2] - The new LDP president will be elected on September 27, with a total of 734 votes available, requiring a majority to win[2][11] Candidate Details - Shigeru Ishiba, aged 67, has a diverse political background and is running for LDP president for the fifth time[2][10] - Ishiba's main weaknesses include a lack of endorsements from party elders and the need to build support across different factions within the party[2][12] Key Policy Proposals - Ishiba supports constitutional amendments and collective self-defense, emphasizing national security as a lifelong commitment[2][12] - He aims to strengthen Japan-US relations while advocating for Japan's independence and equality in the alliance[2][12] - His approach to China is pragmatic, contrasting with the more extreme right-wing stance of other candidates[2][12] - Economically, Ishiba proposes gradually increasing interest rates to enhance industrial competitiveness, diverging from Abenomics[2][12] Election Dynamics - Ishiba's high public support is crucial for improving the LDP's image and aiding younger members in upcoming elections[3] - Support from eliminated candidates in the first round is expected to bolster Ishiba's chances in the second round[3][13] - The political environment in Japan is not yet conducive to electing a female prime minister, impacting the overall dynamics[3][13] Risks and Considerations - There is a significant risk of weakened policy continuity following the change in prime minister[4][17]