CMS(600999) 国泰君安·2024-09-29 11:39Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the company with an "Overweight" rating and a target price of 21.09 CNY [3][4] Core Views - The company is a large comprehensive securities firm under the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC), with strong performance resilience and potential to become a top-tier investment bank leveraging its shareholder background [3] - The company's adjusted revenue and pre-tax profit margin growth outperformed peers, driven by its funding business, which contributed significantly to the rapid growth of adjusted revenue [26][27] - The company is expected to benefit from its shareholder background, focusing on functional development, and is poised to become a top-tier investment bank [3][49] Company Overview - The company is the largest securities firm under the SASAC system, with a strong presence in fund, futures, asset management, private equity, and cross-border financial services [21][22] - Despite market pressures, the company's net profit growth outperformed the industry average, with its net profit ranking rising to 4th in the industry [25][26] - The company has achieved significant cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a notable decrease in management fees and employee costs compared to peers [30][31] Future Prospects - The company is expected to leverage its shareholder background to focus on functional development and become a top-tier investment bank, benefiting from ongoing industry supply-side reforms [3][49] - The company's investment business has shown strong performance, particularly in fixed income, with better-than-peer investment returns driven by strategic asset allocation [38][39] - The company is well-positioned to serve new productive forces and meet the wealth management needs of residents through its synergistic advantages within the China Merchants Group [52][54] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is projected to be 18.231 billion CNY in 2024, 19.403 billion CNY in 2025, and 20.633 billion CNY in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -8.0%, 6.4%, and 6.3%, respectively [7][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 8.921 billion CNY in 2024, 9.785 billion CNY in 2025, and 10.711 billion CNY in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.8%, 9.7%, and 9.5%, respectively [7][8] - The company's EPS is projected to be 1.03 CNY in 2024, 1.13 CNY in 2025, and 1.23 CNY in 2026, while BPS is expected to be 13.08 CNY, 13.95 CNY, and 14.91 CNY for the same periods [7][8]