煤炭行业定期报告：政策改善预期，看好焦煤估值修复及基本面改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [3]. Core Views - The coal industry is expected to experience valuation recovery and fundamental improvement, particularly in coking coal, due to favorable policy expectations [2]. - The supply of coal remains tight due to strict capacity controls under carbon neutrality policies and increasing mining difficulties, leading to a concentration of production in western regions [2]. - Despite macroeconomic pressures and the growth of renewable energy, coal prices are anticipated to remain above 800 RMB per ton, supported by resilient demand [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The coal index increased by 13.4% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 15.7%, indicating a slight underperformance of the coal sector compared to the broader market [8]. 2. Thermal Coal - As of September 27, 2024, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price was 867 RMB per ton, a weekly increase of 1 RMB per ton (0.12%) [20]. - The operating rate of coal mines in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions was 82.0%, down 1.2 percentage points week-on-week [34]. - Daily coal consumption by six major power plants was 88.5 thousand tons, a decrease of 2.9 thousand tons (3.13%) from the previous week [37]. 3. Coking Coal - The price of main coking coal at the Jingtang Port was 1780 RMB per ton, up 10 RMB per ton (0.56%) [52]. - The price of first-grade metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 1700 RMB per ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 50 RMB per ton (3.03%) [66]. - The operating rate of coking plants with a capacity greater than 2 million tons was 73.7%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points week-on-week [52]. 4. Supply and Demand - The operating rates of coal mines in the three provinces (Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia) showed a slight decline, with Inner Mongolia at 87.7% and Shanxi at 71.5% [34]. - The inventory of thermal coal production enterprises was 1398.8 million tons, a decrease of 3.6 million tons (0.26%) [44]. - The inventory at Qinhuangdao Port increased significantly to 585 million tons, up 97 million tons (19.88%) [44]. 5. Recommendations - Investment opportunities are suggested in companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy [2]. - Companies benefiting from coal-electricity integration and those with production expansion potential are also highlighted as attractive investment targets [2].