钢铁行业周报：需求预期筑底反弹，兼并重组或加速推进

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The steel sector is currently at a bottoming phase, with expectations for demand improvement and supply restructuring, leading to enhanced competitive advantages for industry leaders [3][6]. - Recent policy adjustments in the real estate sector are anticipated to stabilize property sales and new construction, which will positively impact steel demand [7][9]. - The report highlights a significant decrease in total inventory levels, reaching the lowest point since 2015, indicating a tightening supply situation [6][9]. Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - The apparent consumption of major steel products reached 9.1337 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 8.16% [14]. - Total inventory of major steel products decreased to 12.9191 million tons, down by 0.9032 million tons week-on-week, marking a significant reduction [9][14]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces across 247 steel mills remained stable at 78.23%, while the capacity utilization rate increased to 84.45% [16]. Price Movements - The price of rebar increased by 100 CNY/ton to 3410 CNY/ton, reflecting a 3.02% rise, while hot-rolled coil prices rose by 200 CNY/ton to 3440 CNY/ton, a 6.17% increase [7][9]. - The report notes that the production profit for rebar decreased to 317.8 CNY/ton, while hot-rolled coil profit increased to 147.8 CNY/ton [20]. Raw Material Insights - Iron ore prices rose, with spot prices increasing by 34 CNY/ton to 731 CNY/ton, a 4.88% increase, and futures prices up by 70 CNY/ton to 750 CNY/ton, a 10.29% rise [25]. - The inventory of imported iron ore at ports decreased to 150.52 million tons, down by 1.69% week-on-week [28]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the adjustments in real estate policies will lead to a rebound in steel demand, as the negative impact from the real estate sector is expected to diminish [7][9]. - The ongoing mergers and acquisitions within the industry are expected to enhance profitability and market concentration, benefiting leading steel companies [3][6].