煤炭行业周报：把握周期弹性，继续看好红利核心

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The coal sector is expected to benefit from economic stabilization, with a focus on coking coal as the most elastic segment. Key recommendations include leading companies such as Huabei Mining, Pingmei Shenma, and Shanxi Coking Coal [2][3]. - Recent policy measures have exceeded market expectations, including stock buybacks and special loans, which are likely to attract long-term capital into dividend-paying assets [2]. - The report anticipates that steel demand recovery will drive coking coal prices upward, making it the most price-elastic segment within the coal sector [2]. Summary by Sections Coking Coal Data Tracking - Coking coal prices have seen an increase, with the main coking coal price at Jing-Tang Port rising to 1780 CNY/ton, up 0.6% from the previous week [34][43]. - The report notes that the worst times for raw material prices are over, as steel profitability has improved significantly [2][34]. Thermal Coal Data Tracking - Thermal coal prices have shown mixed trends, with the price at Qinhuangdao Port at 728 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1% [28]. - The report indicates that thermal coal consumption is expected to decline as the peak season approaches, with prices likely to stabilize above 800 CNY/ton [2][5]. Market Overview - The coal sector outperformed the broader market, with a 1.97% increase compared to a 0.60% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [73]. - Key companies such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal & Chemical have been highlighted for their strong dividend yields, making them attractive investments [2][3]. Inventory and Price Trends - As of September 28, 2024, Qinhuangdao's coal inventory increased by 8.7% to 5.63 million tons, while southern ports saw a decrease in inventory [1][14]. - The report notes that the price gap between domestic and Australian coal has narrowed, with domestic coal prices remaining competitive [14][16].