XfmGroup(SH:603225)2024-09-29 23:07Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a market price of RMB 9.90 and a sector rating of outperforming the market [1][3]. Core Views - The company is recognized as a leading player in the polyester filament industry, with expectations for recovery in industry conditions and growth potential from its integrated refining and chemical business model [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Xin Feng Ming, is one of the largest manufacturers of polyester filament in China, with a production capacity of 8.6 million tons per year, including 7.4 million tons of polyester filament, capturing over 12% of the domestic market [4][10]. Financial Performance - From 2012 to 2023, the company's revenue grew from RMB 9.448 billion to RMB 61.469 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.56%. In the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 31.272 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.96%, and a net profit of RMB 605 million, up 26.17% year-on-year [4][17]. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights a significant reduction in new capacity additions in the polyester filament industry, with only 900,000 tons expected in 2024, which is 18.87% of the 2023 additions. The elimination of outdated capacity is also anticipated, with 2-2.5 million tons expected to be phased out between 2024 and 2025 [4][31]. Demand and Supply Factors - Domestic demand for polyester filament is expected to grow, supported by rising consumer spending on clothing, which is still below levels in developed countries. The report notes that the apparent consumption of polyester filament in China reached 28.8482 million tons in 2023, a 12.33% increase year-on-year [40]. Product and Capacity Expansion - The company has diversified its product matrix, including 1.2 million tons of polyester staple fiber, and is expanding its PTA production capacity to 10 million tons by 2026. This expansion is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge in the industry [4][10]. Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2024-2026 to be RMB 1.538 billion, RMB 1.965 billion, and RMB 2.616 billion, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 1.01, RMB 1.29, and RMB 1.72. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 9.8x, 7.7x, and 5.8x for the same periods [4][5].