铝行业周报：政策“组合拳”发力，需求持续改善，“去库+涨价”延续

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [1][12]. Core Insights - The aluminum industry is experiencing a combination of favorable policies and improving demand, leading to a positive market sentiment and expectations [7][12]. - The supply of bauxite remains tight, influenced by seasonal factors, which supports the price of alumina and, consequently, aluminum prices [12]. - Integrated companies in the aluminum sector are expected to benefit significantly from these trends, highlighting potential investment opportunities [12]. Summary by Sections Macro Environment - Recent macroeconomic policies, including interest rate cuts and liquidity support measures, have positively impacted market sentiment and aluminum prices [7]. - The focus on high-quality employment and economic development by the government further supports the industry's growth prospects [7]. Supply and Demand - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is primarily on the rise, with recent restarts of production in several facilities [8]. - The net import of aluminum increased significantly in August, indicating strong demand despite potential supply constraints [8]. - Downstream demand for aluminum products remains stable, with improved order volumes in various sectors, including industrial materials and automotive [8]. Price Trends - As of September 27, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2,633.0 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5.9% and a year-on-year increase of 17.5% [20]. - The domestic aluminum price reached 20,455.0 CNY per ton, marking a 1.9% increase from the previous week and a 5.8% increase year-on-year [20][21]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies in the sector include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, China Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" with strong earnings forecasts for 2024 and 2025 [5]. - For instance, China Hongqiao is projected to have an EPS of 2.12 CNY in 2024, with a PE ratio of 5.4 [5]. Production and Capacity - The weekly production of electrolytic aluminum was reported at 834,000 tons, showing a slight increase compared to the previous week and a year-on-year growth [45]. - The alumina production for the same week was 1.631 million tons, indicating a slight decrease but an overall increase compared to the previous year [45]. Raw Material Prices - As of September 27, alumina prices averaged 4,074.0 CNY per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 38.2% [29]. - The price of bauxite also saw an increase, averaging 547.5 CNY per ton, up 5.5% year-on-year [32].