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社会服务行业·周观点:多地发放惠民消费券,有望提振国庆假期旅游经济
AVIC Securities·2024-09-30 00:08

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to exceed that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [37]. Core Viewpoints - The National Day holiday tourism market is expected to be robust, with the issuance of consumer vouchers likely to accelerate demand release. During the holiday, domestic long-distance travel and outbound tourism are seeing a surge, with online travel platforms reporting that domestic long-distance travel accounts for 52% of trips. The booking volume for international flights from third-tier cities has increased by 2.5 times year-on-year [21][28]. - The overall recovery of the tourism market is anticipated, with historical highs in travel volume and consumption expected during the National Day holiday. The report suggests focusing on domestic tourism destinations with expected traffic improvements and outbound tourism product providers due to increased flight availability and visa-free countries [21][28]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The social services sector index saw a weekly increase of 17.26%, ranking 8th among 31 primary industry indices. The performance of various benchmark indices for the week includes: ChiNext Index (22.71%), Shenzhen Component Index (17.83%), and CSI 300 (15.70) [13][14]. - Sub-industry performance rankings for the week are as follows: Hotel and Catering (19.76%), Education (15.56%), Professional Services (14.90%), Tourism and Scenic Spots (13.33%), and Sports II (10.41%) [15]. Individual Stock Performance - The top five performing stocks in the social services sector include: Core International (41.96%), Junting Hotel (33.36%), Dou Shen Education (31.00%), Zero Point You Shu (30.21%), and Beijing Renli (28.29%). The bottom five include: *ST Kaiyuan (-2.97%), ST Dongshi (2.11%), ST Caesar (5.16%), Kaipu Testing (7.90%), and Xigao Hospital (8.16%) [16]. Industry News Dynamics - The report highlights the expected peak in inbound tourism due to relaxed policies, with inbound travel orders increasing by 60% year-on-year. The report also notes the growth of tourism in smaller cities, with significant increases in rural tourism orders [22]. - The issuance of consumer vouchers in cities like Shanghai, with a total of 500 million yuan allocated, is expected to boost consumer spending in sectors such as dining and accommodation [28].