KEDE Numerical (688305) 海通证券·2024-09-30 00:09Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [2]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic manufacturer of high-end five-axis CNC machine tools, maintaining strong operational efficiency and benefiting from industry upgrades and domestic substitution trends [6][7]. - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with a reported net profit of 1.02 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 69.01% [6][29]. - The five-axis machine tool market in China is expected to grow from approximately 9.6 billion yuan in 2022 to over 20.1 billion yuan by 2027, driven by demand from advanced manufacturing sectors [6][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is one of the few domestic manufacturers capable of producing CNC systems and key components for five-axis machine tools, with a robust product lineup and a strong management team [14][18]. - The company has received investments from industrial funds, enhancing its financial stability and growth potential [18][19]. 2. Market Analysis - The five-axis machine tool market is characterized by high barriers to entry and is expected to benefit from the upgrading of the manufacturing industry and accelerated domestic substitution [6][10]. - The company is well-positioned to capture new demand from sectors such as aerospace and new energy vehicles, with a significant increase in new orders reported [7][10]. 3. Financial Performance - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.06% from 2017 to 2023, and a projected revenue of 6.09 billion yuan in 2024 [21][29]. - The gross profit margin for 2023 was reported at 46.03%, reflecting effective cost control and a favorable product mix [29][30]. 4. Production Capacity and Strategy - The company is expanding its production capacity through multiple rounds of financing, aiming to increase its five-axis machine tool output significantly by 2028 [9][10]. - The company maintains a high level of R&D investment, ensuring continuous innovation and competitiveness in the market [21][30]. 5. Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts a net profit of 1.22 billion yuan for 2024, with a reasonable valuation range of 72.23 to 84.27 yuan per share based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 60-70 times [9][10].