钢铁行业周报：增量政策在路上，基本面具备继续反弹基础

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Follow the Market" rating for the steel sector, indicating a cautious but optimistic outlook for the industry [5]. Core Insights - The steel market is experiencing a rebound due to supportive policies and improved market confidence, with black series prices continuing to rise [2][12]. - Steel production and consumption are showing positive trends, with a notable increase in daily iron output and a seasonal recovery in construction material demand [2][4]. - Inventory levels for major steel products have decreased for nine consecutive weeks, reflecting a slight mismatch between supply and demand [2][4]. Weekly Review - The black series prices have rebounded, driven by policy support, with daily average iron output rising to 2.249 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.46% [2][12]. - The production of five major steel products reached 8.231 million tons, up 1.86% week-on-week, while consumption increased to 9.134 million tons, up 8.16% week-on-week [2][12]. - Inventory of five major steel products fell to 12.919 million tons, down 6.53% week-on-week and 14.49% year-on-year [2][12]. Upstream and Downstream Industry Chain - Iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 27.86 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, with port inventories at 150.53 million tons, down 1.7% week-on-week [3][13]. - Coking coal mining rates are stable, with a utilization rate of 90.83% and coking coal inventories at 25.28 million tons, up 2.87% week-on-week [3][13]. - Steel mills' profitability is improving, with a profit rate of 18.61% for 247 surveyed mills, indicating potential for further production recovery [4][14]. Market Outlook - The steel sector is expected to see continued recovery in production and consumption, with a strong likelihood of policy support and improved market conditions [4][14]. - Downstream demand is anticipated to recover further, particularly in the home appliance sector, with production in key industries expected to grow significantly [4][14]. - The report highlights the potential for a rebound in the steel market, but cautions against the risks of rapid production recovery outpacing actual demand [4][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on five main lines of investment: companies with stable high dividends and low valuations, firms with high barriers to entry, companies with stable performance and recovery potential, resource-rich firms benefiting from copper expansion, and leaders in high-temperature alloys [5][15]. - The coking coal sector is highlighted as a favorable investment opportunity, with the third round of price increases for coke signaling a positive market sentiment [5][15].