HLGF(600346) 申万宏源·2024-09-30 00:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hengli Petrochemical (600346) [6][7][8] Core Views - Hengli Petrochemical is a high-dividend refining and chemical enterprise with potential for profit improvement as fundamentals strengthen [2] - The company has a vertically integrated refining and chemical chain, with strong cost control and management capabilities, leading to a high average ROE of 22% over the past five years [6] - Oil price trends are expected to improve refining costs, with aromatics likely to maintain high profitability [6] - The company's cost advantages and new material projects are expected to contribute to performance growth [6] Financial Performance - In 2023, Hengli Petrochemical achieved operating revenue of 234.866 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.905 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 197.8% [5] - The company's gross profit margin in 2023 was 11.2%, with an ROE of 11.5% [5] - For 2024-2026, the company's operating revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 2.1%, with net profit attributable to the parent company expected to reach 8.050 billion yuan, 10.486 billion yuan, and 12.439 billion yuan, respectively [5] Industry Analysis - Global oil demand growth is expected to slow due to economic slowdown and the impact of clean energy, with oil prices expected to decline from Q2 2025 [30][35] - Global refining capacity growth is slowing, with significant capacity reductions in Europe and the US, creating a favorable market environment for large-scale refining enterprises [39][42] - Aromatics, particularly PX, are expected to maintain tight supply-demand balance and high profitability due to limited new capacity and strong downstream demand [45][47][53] - Olefins are currently oversupplied, but the industry is expected to enter an upward cycle after 2027 [59][60] Company Advantages - Hengli Petrochemical has a vertically integrated refining and chemical chain, with 20 million tons of crude oil and 5 million tons of coal processing capacity, producing 5.2 million tons of PX, 1.2 million tons of benzene, and 1.66 million tons of PTA annually [18][19] - The company has significant cost advantages due to its advanced heavy oil processing capabilities and integrated supporting facilities, with coal-to-hydrogen projects providing low-cost hydrogen and methanol [74][76][77] - New material projects, including a 1.6 million tons/year high-performance resin and new materials project, are expected to contribute to performance growth [6][18]