煤炭行业周报：基本面获政策加持，做多核心煤炭资产

Investment Ratings - Key companies rated as "Buy": Shaanxi Coal, China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, Huabei Mining, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Jinkong Coal, Shanxi Coking Coal, Electric Power Investment Energy, Huayang Co., Ltd. [1][2] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the fundamental support from policies for core coal assets, indicating a bullish outlook for the coal industry. It highlights that while the demand for thermal coal has decreased slightly, the overall market remains strong due to cost support at ports and improving economic expectations. [5][42] - The report suggests that the traditional peak season ("Golden September and Silver October") is expected to sustain demand for coking coal, leading to a potential increase in prices. [5][42] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - As of September 27, the Qinhuangdao thermal coal price was 875 CNY/ton, a weekly increase of 2 CNY/ton. The long-term contract price for thermal coal (Q5500) in September 2024 was 697 CNY/ton, showing a year-on-year and month-on-month decrease of 0.3%. [9][12] - The inventory at northern ports reached 25.33 million tons, an increase of 2.7 million tons week-on-week. Coastal provinces' inventory was 33.60 million tons, with a usable duration of 15.6 days, up by 1.2 days. [12][18] 2. Coking Coal and Coke - As of September 27, the price of Shanxi coking coal was 1,760 CNY/ton, a weekly increase of 30 CNY/ton. The coke price index was 1,565 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 44 CNY/ton. The cost index for coke was 1,784 CNY/ton, indicating a price-cost gap of 219 CNY/ton, which decreased by 32 CNY/ton week-on-week. [22][24] - The report notes that the demand for coking coal is expected to improve due to a slight recovery in iron production, and the second round of price increases for coke has been implemented. [5][42] 3. Market Trends - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to remain strong post-holiday, supported by cost factors and improving economic conditions. The focus is on companies with stable performance and high return on equity (ROE), as well as those with attractive valuations and dividend yields. [5][42] - The report recommends a selection of companies including Huayang Co., Ltd., Shanxi Coking Coal, and others based on their performance and governance improvements. [5][42]