宏观双周报：重磅政策扭转市场走势

Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has initiated a monetary easing cycle, with a 20 basis points (bps) cut in the 7-day OMO rate to 1.5% on September 27, 2024, indicating potential for further rate cuts this year[3] - The actual interest rate was measured at 1.57% as of August, still within the 58th percentile since 2010, suggesting room for further declines[3] - A 50 bps reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut was also implemented on September 27, 2024, with expectations of an additional 25-50 bps cut later this year[12] Real Estate Market - The down payment ratio for second homes has been reduced from 25% to 15%, aimed at stabilizing the real estate market[13] - The central bank has increased the proportion of re-loan support for affordable housing from 60% to 100%, with a total of 300 billion yuan allocated for this purpose[13] - Policies are expected to further support the real estate sector, including potential easing of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities[13] Stock Market Dynamics - The recent policy announcements have led to a significant increase in A-share market sentiment, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 12.32% over four trading days following the September 24 press conference[5] - New capital market tools are expected to bring in long-term funds, including a 500 billion yuan liquidity swap facility for securities, funds, and insurance companies[15] - A special re-loan program for stock buybacks and increases has been established, with an initial scale of 300 billion yuan, supporting stock repurchases and enhancing market liquidity[16] Economic Indicators - The overall public budget revenue for January to August 2024 was 14.78 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.6% year-on-year, while expenditures increased by 1.5%[30] - High-frequency data shows a rebound in property transactions, with a notable increase in the number of domestic flights and freight volumes post-Mid-Autumn Festival[20] Risks and Outlook - Geopolitical risks and the potential for policy implementation falling short of expectations pose significant risks to economic recovery[30] - The market is currently in a phase of heightened sentiment, with expectations for further policy support to drive effective demand recovery in the coming months[5]