中泰证券：【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】银行戴志锋：金融｜解读政治局会议最新表述：金融政策和财政政策的转向-20240930

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a significant shift in financial and fiscal policies as highlighted in the recent Politburo meeting, reflecting an increased focus on economic recovery and growth [3][4][5] - The report emphasizes that the upcoming fiscal policies will prioritize expanding domestic demand, promoting consumption, and enhancing people's livelihoods, with a notable acceleration expected in the fourth quarter [3][4] - The meeting's outcomes are expected to boost market confidence, improve risk appetite, and enhance the outlook for economic recovery, contingent on the effectiveness and scale of fiscal policy implementation [4][5] Group 2 - The report discusses the rise of the "Big Xinchuang" initiative, which aims for comprehensive domestic replacement of IT systems, predicting the market size to exceed 4.23 trillion by 2027 [2][3] - It highlights the low domestic production rates in foundational IT hardware and software, indicating significant room for improvement in localization efforts across various sectors [3] - The report notes that while some domestic software companies are gaining market share, they still face challenges in competing with established foreign firms in high-end markets [3] Group 3 - The report on long-term credit bonds outlines the challenges in pricing due to their complexity and the inadequacies of traditional pricing methods, proposing an improved Diebold-Li model for better accuracy [2] - It details the enhancements made to the D-L model, including parameter optimization and trend data processing, which significantly improve pricing predictions for long-term bonds [2] - The report validates the model's effectiveness through various case studies, demonstrating its ability to accurately predict price trends for newly issued and existing bonds [2]