国君研究|全行业周观点0930-1004

Currency and Economic Outlook - The USD trend is expected to clarify by the end of 2024, primarily dependent on US economic performance[1] - The Japanese yen is projected to remain weak through 2025 despite potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan in December or early next year[1] - The euro is likely to experience a slight increase amidst fluctuations in 2024[1] - The British pound is expected to maintain its strength in 2025[1] - The Australian dollar is anticipated to show a fluctuating upward trend in 2025[1] Market Performance and Investment Strategy - The stock market is experiencing a significant rebound due to declining risk-free interest rates and increased risk appetite, with further room for growth expected[1] - The Hong Kong stock market has outperformed major global indices following the initiation of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, with a notable increase in IPO fundraising and net inflows from the south[1] - The valuation center of the Hong Kong stock market is expected to rise, supported by improved liquidity and positive feedback loops from increased capital inflows[1] Sector Analysis - The company "Shangda Co., Ltd." (301522.SZ) reported a revenue of 2.035 billion CNY and a net profit of 151 million CNY in 2023, with projected average P/E ratios of 30.43, 22.25, and 16.71 for 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively[1] - The coal sector is expected to see a second wave of opportunities this year, driven by better-than-expected fundamentals[3] - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing performance divergence, with chemical and biological drugs showing strong results, while traditional Chinese medicine faces short-term pressure[5]