农业行业周报:天气转凉刺激生猪消费,关注生猪养殖板块
Haitong Securities·2024-09-30 02:38

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the pig farming sector, indicating a potential upward trend in pig prices and recommending stocks such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Shennong Group [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector saw a significant increase of 15.3% last week, with pig farming leading at +17.4% [4]. - The average price of live pigs was reported at 17.9 CNY/kg, down 4.3% week-on-week, indicating ongoing price adjustments [4][12]. - The report anticipates an increase in pig consumption as temperatures drop, which may lead to a recovery in price differentials [4][6]. - The report highlights the cautious approach to production capacity recovery in the pig farming industry, suggesting a prolonged window of profitability [4][6]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - The report emphasizes the seasonal increase in pig consumption during autumn and winter, predicting a rise in price differentials as demand increases [4]. - It notes that the supply of pigs is currently at a relatively low level due to previous culling and seasonal factors [4]. - The report recommends focusing on stocks with cost advantages, specifically mentioning Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Shennong Group [4][6]. Aquaculture Sector - The report indicates a general decline in aquatic product prices, with specific attention on Haida Group due to improving supply-demand dynamics [4][6]. - It mentions that the overall price level for aquatic products is better than last year, suggesting a positive outlook for the aquaculture feed industry [4][6]. Poultry Sector - The report notes a slight decrease in the prices of broiler chicks and live chickens, but anticipates a recovery in profitability for the poultry industry due to improved demand and lower feed costs [5][6]. - Recommended stocks in this sector include Shengnong Development, Hefeng Group, and Yisheng Group [5][6]. Seed Industry - The report highlights the ongoing commercialization of genetically modified crops, suggesting that the industry is entering a new opportunity phase [5][6]. - It recommends focusing on companies with technological advantages, such as Dabeinong Technology Group, Longping High-Tech, and Denghai Seeds [5][6]. Pet Food Sector - The report notes strong performance in the pet food market, with both domestic and overseas sales showing positive growth [6]. - Recommended stocks include Guibao Pet Food, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co. [6].