钢铁行业周报：宏观与产业共振，重视钢铁股修复行情

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry, with specific companies recommended for investment including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Hebei Resources, and Jiuli Special Materials, all rated as "Buy" [1][3]. Core Insights - Recent macro policies have exceeded expectations, alleviating pessimistic sentiment and leading to a significant rebound in steel prices. The supply-demand structure in the industry has improved, particularly with strong downstream inventory replenishment ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival. However, macroeconomic confidence remains a critical factor influencing price recovery [4][5]. - The report emphasizes that the sustainability and extent of steel price rebounds will depend on the strength of future macroeconomic stimulus policies. Following the introduction of favorable macro policies, market sentiment has improved, leading to a broad rebound in black commodities [4][5]. - The report highlights that while steel mills are still facing significant losses, the current macro sentiment is warming, and the inventory replenishment trend may continue to drive iron ore prices upward. It is expected that steel prices will be more likely to rise than fall in the near term [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance Review - The steel sector has seen a 17.3% increase, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.5 percentage points [12]. 2. Weekly Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Steel Price Recovery and Iron Ore Inventory Decline - National steel prices have generally rebounded, with specific price changes noted for rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled sheets, cold-rolled sheets, and medium plates [13]. - Iron ore inventory at ports has decreased significantly, indicating a tightening supply situation [18]. 2.2 Stable Blast Furnace Operation and Improved Demand - The operating rate of blast furnaces remains stable at 78.23%, with an increase in production across five major steel products [6][28]. - The average transaction volume of construction steel has increased, indicating a recovery in demand [6][32]. 3. Industry Dynamics 3.1 Key Industry News - Recent data shows a significant decline in new housing transactions in key cities, which may impact steel demand in the construction sector [33][34]. - The Central Political Bureau has emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market, which could influence future steel demand [34]. 3.2 Company Announcements - Wu Jin Stainless Steel has announced a share repurchase plan, indicating confidence in its stock value [35].