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有色金属行业周报:国内政策定调积极,继续重点推荐铜铝布局机会
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES·2024-09-30 02:40

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the copper and aluminum sectors, recommending a focus on companies such as Jincheng Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Aluminum [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in copper and aluminum prices, driven by improved industrial data and macroeconomic expectations, particularly the latter being a decisive factor [3]. - The report anticipates that the performance of the copper and aluminum sectors will continue to exceed expectations in the fourth quarter, supported by significant monetary and fiscal policy measures [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that the recovery of the Chinese economy is likely to significantly boost the valuations of cyclical stocks, especially with forthcoming macroeconomic stimulus policies [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance Review - The non-ferrous metal sector has risen by 12.91%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.10 percentage points [5]. 2. Industrial Metal Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Aluminum: Policy Benefits Driving Price Increase - Recent policies have positively influenced aluminum prices, with the average profit per ton in the industry around 1,700 RMB [3][4]. - The report notes that aluminum prices have increased, supported by stable production capacity and high downstream operating rates during peak season [3][4]. 2.2 Copper: Continued Price Rebound - Copper prices have shown a continued rebound, with domestic smelting output remaining tight and strong pre-holiday replenishment demand [3][4]. - The report indicates that the average price of copper concentrate has increased, with a notable rise in both SHFE and LME copper prices [13][31]. 3. Precious Metals Fundamentals Tracking - Gold prices have continued to rise, with expectations of further increases due to liquidity easing and macroeconomic conditions [3][4]. 4. Energy Metals and Rare Earths Fundamentals Tracking 4.1 Lithium: Slight Price Increase - The price of lithium carbonate has seen a minor increase, with production expected to decline slightly due to maintenance at some lithium salt plants [3][4]. 5. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the overall positive sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by favorable policies and macroeconomic conditions [3][4].