资本激励是否会扭曲技术扩散？云、大数据和人工智能的证据（英）

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry under study Core Insights - Capital incentive policies in OECD countries, while aimed at boosting IT capital investment, may inadvertently hinder the adoption of cloud computing, big data analytics, and AI technologies [2][6][11] - The introduction of the Annual Investment Allowance (AIA) in the UK led to a significant increase in tangible capital investment by 61.7% from 2007 to 2013, but simultaneously reduced cloud adoption by 17 percentage points compared to the mean rate of 28% [11][12] - The AIA policy particularly affected small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which were found to be 37% less likely to adopt cloud technologies due to the incentives [12][13] - The report highlights that the AIA also lowered the likelihood of using big data analytics and AI by 18% and 3% respectively among treated firms, suggesting a broader impact on technology diffusion [13][14] Summary by Sections Introduction - The paper discusses how capital incentives can shape production technology and the unintended consequences these policies may have on technological change [6][8] Policy Analysis - The AIA was introduced to stimulate investment in tangible capital, including IT capital, but its design may distort firms' choices between investing in physical IT and adopting cloud services [20][21] Empirical Findings - The empirical analysis shows that firms eligible for the AIA experienced a significant increase in tangible capital investment but a decrease in cloud technology adoption, indicating a distortion in technology diffusion [11][12] - The report provides evidence that the AIA policy reduced the demand for data analytics workers by approximately 1.1% compared to non-treated firms, specifically affecting those in data analytics roles [14] Data and Methodology - The research utilizes firm-level panel data to assess the impact of the AIA on technology adoption, employing a difference-in-differences approach to compare treated and control firms [29][35] Conclusion - The findings suggest that capital incentive policies can have long-term impacts on technology adoption, potentially hindering competitiveness and growth at both the firm and macroeconomic levels [16][18]