利用卫星图像和农民登记册评估冲突环境中的农业支持：乌克兰生产者支持补助金计划案例（英）

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the agricultural sector in Ukraine, but it discusses the effectiveness of the Producer Support Grant program, which indicates a focus on supporting small and medium-sized farmers in a conflict-affected environment [4][9]. Core Insights - The digital farmer registry in Ukraine, known as the State Agrarian Register (SAR), has been instrumental in targeting and evaluating the $50 million Producer Support Grant (PSG) program, which has significantly increased the area cultivated by farmers, particularly those near conflict zones and smaller farms [4][12]. - The PSG program provided cash grants of approximately $86 per hectare to small farmers, which helped to bridge short-term financial gaps, although the overall impact on cultivated area was modest [12][32]. - The report emphasizes the importance of using administrative data and satellite imagery to assess agricultural support in conflict settings, highlighting the potential for improved targeting and effectiveness of public programs [13][20]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report outlines the context of Ukraine's agricultural sector post-Russian invasion, noting significant displacement and damage to agricultural productivity [9][23]. - The establishment of the SAR aimed to facilitate access to support programs for small and medium-sized farmers [9][29]. Context and Setting - Ukraine has over 40 million hectares of fertile land, contributing about 10% to GDP and 42% of exports before the war [25]. - The war has disrupted agricultural production and logistics, necessitating the establishment of the SAR to support farmers [27][29]. PSG Program and SAR Platform - The PSG program, supported by the EU, provided unconditional cash grants to small producers, with a total of €50 million allocated [32]. - The SAR platform was designed to streamline the application process and reduce bureaucratic barriers for farmers [29][31]. Farm-Level Effects of the War and PSG Access - Despite the war, the total area cultivated remained resilient, although profits per hectare significantly declined due to increased input costs and lower output prices [34][39]. - The PSG grants were primarily used as working capital rather than for investment, indicating a need for more substantial financial support for long-term growth [44]. Assessing PSG Impacts on Area Cultivated and Targeting - The analysis indicates that the PSG program had significant but modest benefits, particularly for small producers near conflict zones, with limited mis-targeting observed [46][50]. - The use of satellite data and cadastral information allowed for a more accurate assessment of the program's impact on cultivated areas [46][48].