黄金周度观察——2024年第40周

Price Performance - As of September 27, 2024, Shanghai gold price closed at 597.16 CNY/gram, with a weekly increase of 1.51%[4] - COMEX gold closed at 2649.9 USD/ounce, with a weekly increase of 1.07%[4] - London spot gold closed at 2661.85 USD/ounce, with a weekly increase of 2.15%[4] Market Outlook - Short-term gold prices are expected to continue high-level fluctuations due to the initiation of the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle, providing support for gold prices[1] - Long-term investment opportunities in gold remain favorable, with expectations of a rising price center driven by geopolitical risks and declining long-term U.S. Treasury yields[1] Economic Indicators - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November 2024 are approximately 47.4%, while a 50 basis point cut has a probability of 52.6%[10] - The S&P 500 volatility index (VIX) recorded 16.96 points, an increase of 0.81 from the previous week, indicating rising market anxiety[10] ETF Holdings - As of September 27, 2024, SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 3.45 tons to approximately 871.94 tons, while iShares Gold ETF holdings increased by 1.38 tons to approximately 371.36 tons[6] Futures and Inventory - As of September 24, 2024, CFTC COMEX non-commercial net long positions in gold increased by 5,324 contracts to 387,572 contracts[14] - COMEX gold inventory increased by 279,222.44 ounces to 17.1773 million ounces as of September 27, 2024[14]