国内观察：2024年9月政治局会议点评：关键词：有力度的降息，房地产止跌回稳，提振资本市场

Policy Insights - The September Politburo meeting emphasized strong counter-cyclical adjustments, indicating a proactive approach to economic management[3] - The meeting's unexpected focus on economic conditions suggests a significant policy shift, with potential for a notable rebound in nominal GDP growth in Q4[3] - The meeting highlighted the need for "substantial" interest rate cuts, signaling the beginning of a new easing cycle amid weak domestic demand and high real interest rates[3] Real Estate Sector - The policy aims to stabilize the real estate market, with potential adjustments to housing purchase restrictions in first-tier cities to boost demand[4] - Emphasis on controlling new supply while optimizing existing inventory, with measures to support the clearance of excess stock in cities with prolonged inventory cycles[4] Capital Market Support - The meeting called for efforts to boost the capital market, encouraging long-term funds to enter the market and addressing barriers for social security, insurance, and wealth management funds[4] - The focus on stabilizing the stock market is expected to enhance investor confidence and positively impact consumer spending[4] Fiscal Policy Coordination - The meeting stressed the importance of issuing long-term special government bonds and local government bonds to enhance government investment's role[3] - Future fiscal policies are anticipated to align with monetary policies to create a synergistic effect, with potential adjustments to the deficit ratio and bond issuance expected in October[3] Economic Environment - The meeting acknowledged new challenges in the current economic landscape, particularly regarding weak domestic demand in Q3, necessitating a sense of urgency in economic management[3] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation, continued downturns in the real estate market, and external economic pressures such as a U.S. recession[5]