银行投资观察：三拐点已现，行情不设限

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [4] Core Viewpoints - The banking sector has shown a general upward trend, with A-shares outperforming H-shares during the observation period from September 23 to September 27, 2024. The overall banking sector (CITIC first-level industry) increased by 10.8%, lagging behind the Wind All A index, which rose by 15.1% [36][38] - The report highlights the emergence of three turning points in the market, indicating a significant shift in investment opportunities, particularly in the context of improving cross-border liquidity and domestic policy support [38] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Performance - The banking sector's performance during the observation period saw a 10.8% increase, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks showing changes of 6.40%, 13.92%, 11.30%, and 11.12% respectively [36][38] 2. Individual Stock Performance - The top three performing A-share banks were Ningbo Bank (+22.33%), Guiyang Bank (+20.00%), and Zhengzhou Bank (+19.63%). Conversely, the bottom three were Nanjing Bank (+2.33%), Agricultural Bank (+3.52%), and Bank of China (+4.96%) [2][36] - In the H-share market, the top performers included China Merchants Bank (+24.23%), Zhengzhou Bank (+15.07%), and Jiangxi Bank (+14.04%), while the worst performers were Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank (-5.59%), Agricultural Bank (+2.45%), and Bank of China (+6.57%) [2][36] 3. Convertible Bond Performance - The average price of bank convertible bonds increased by 2.12%, underperforming the CSI convertible bond index by 3.10 percentage points. The top three individual bonds were Changyin Convertible Bond (+7.24%), Chengyin Convertible Bond (+7.01%), and Hangyin Convertible Bond (+6.62%) [2][37] 4. Earnings Forecast Tracking - The report indicates that the earnings growth expectations for 10 banks in 2024 have shown slight changes, with A-share banks' net profit growth and revenue growth expectations adjusting by +0.11 percentage points and -0.10 percentage points respectively compared to the previous period [3][37] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the current market conditions present significant opportunities, with a recommendation to focus on recovery-related stocks such as China Merchants Bank, Ningbo Bank, Postal Savings Bank, and Changshu Bank [38]