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非银金融行业投资策略周报:政策组合拳力度超预期,重视非银板块强贝塔
GF SECURITIES·2024-09-30 03:42

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The non-bank financial sector is expected to benefit from a series of supportive policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, with a focus on the strong beta characteristics of the non-bank sector [2] - The securities sector is experiencing a resurgence due to unexpected policy support, with significant increases in trading volumes and margin balances, indicating a recovery in market confidence [2][17] - The insurance sector is poised for growth as long-term interest rates and equity markets rebound, leading to improved asset valuations and profit growth [2][15] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Performance - As of September 27, major indices showed significant gains: Shanghai Composite Index increased by 12.81%, Shenzhen Component Index by 17.83%, and CSI 300 by 15.70% [9] 2. Industry Dynamics and Weekly Commentary (a) Insurance - The State Council's recent announcements, including lowering reserve requirements and interest rates, are expected to positively impact the insurance sector's asset side, leading to a recovery in long-term interest rates [11][15] - The insurance sector's valuation is recovering from historically low levels, supported by stable growth policies and a favorable profit growth outlook for the third quarter [15][16] - Key stocks to watch include China Pacific Insurance, New China Life, China Taiping, Ping An, China Life, China Property & Casualty, and AIA [16] (b) Securities - The recent policy measures are expected to enhance the stability of the capital market and attract long-term funds, benefiting the securities sector [17][24] - The securities firms are likely to see a revival in investment banking activities, particularly in mergers and acquisitions, as regulatory support increases [24][25] - Notable stocks include East Money Information, Tonghuashun, China Galaxy Securities, CITIC Securities, and Huatai Securities [2][6] 3. Market Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of ongoing policy support in boosting market confidence and activity, particularly in the non-bank financial sector [22][24] - The introduction of new monetary policy tools and support for equity markets is expected to enhance liquidity and investor participation [24][25]