房地产及物管行业24年第39周周报：政策态度迎来拐点，中央强化止跌回稳诉求

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The policy environment for the real estate market has reached a significant turning point, with the central government emphasizing the need to stabilize the market and prevent further declines. Key measures include increasing loan support for "white list" projects, adjusting purchase restrictions, and lowering existing mortgage rates, with an expected average reduction of around 50 basis points [2][12][13] - New home transaction volumes have shown a seasonal rebound, with a week-on-week increase of 62.1% in new home sales across 51 cities, although year-on-year figures remain down by 33.7%. The second-hand housing market also saw a rise, with a 51.4% increase in transaction volumes week-on-week [2][20][25] - The land market is experiencing a narrowing decline in transaction volumes, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.2% in land sales revenue for September 2024 [2][12] Summary by Sections 1. Policy and Market Tracking - The central government has called for measures to stabilize the real estate market, including increasing loan support and adjusting housing purchase policies. The average reduction in existing mortgage rates is projected to be around 50 basis points, with the down payment ratio for second homes lowered to 15% [12][13] - Local policies have also been implemented, such as the cancellation of purchase restrictions in Guangzhou's Nansha District and the establishment of housing ticket systems in Jiangsu [12][14] 2. Key City Transaction Data - In the week ending September 26, 2024, the monitored 51 cities recorded a total new home transaction area of 433.2 million square meters, marking a 62.1% increase from the previous week but a 33.7% decrease year-on-year [20][25] - The transaction volumes in major cities showed significant week-on-week increases, with Guangzhou up by 71.0%, and cities like Hangzhou and Suzhou seeing increases of 187.9% and 143.2%, respectively [25] 3. Development Sector Insights - Overall transaction volumes in September have been weak, with both new and second-hand home sales showing a decline compared to August. However, the recent policy announcements are expected to positively impact market sentiment and transaction volumes in the near future [3][12] 4. Property Management Sector Insights - The property management sector has seen a rebound, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 13.0% and the average increase in the property management sector at 11.4%. Leading state-owned enterprises and non-defaulting private companies have shown significant stock price increases [3]