Overseas Macro - In August, the US PCE inflation rate fell to 2.2%, the lowest since March 2021, with core PCE at 2.7%[2] - The US manufacturing PMI for September dropped to 47.0, a 15-month low, while the services PMI remained in expansion at 55.4[3][4] - The dollar index fluctuated above 100, and the 10Y US Treasury yield rose to 3.75%[1] Domestic Macro - A-shares experienced a significant rebound, with the offshore RMB breaking the 7 mark, driven by unexpected policy support[1] - In September, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points and interest rates by 20-30 basis points, signaling future easing[9] - Industrial profits in August showed a year-on-year decline of 17.8%, indicating weak demand and profit pressures across various sectors[6][7] Risks and Market Outlook - Risks include weaker-than-expected fiscal policy, increased volatility during overseas holidays, and ongoing geopolitical tensions[1] - The market is currently pricing in a potential 75 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year[1]
宏观周报：海外继续交易“软着陆”，国内政策暖风超预期
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2024-09-30 05:01