基础化工行业周报：地产消费政策持续加码，化工行业有望迎来需求拐点

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Overweight" [1]. Core Views - The chemical industry is expected to experience a demand turning point due to ongoing real estate consumption policies [1]. - The report highlights a continued trend of differentiation in the chemical industry's prosperity in 2024, recommending attention to synthetic biology, agricultural chemicals, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [1][3]. Industry Performance - For the week of September 23-27, 2024, the chemical sector ranked 17th in overall performance with a gain of 14.33%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 12.81% [1][14]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included fluorine chemicals (+19.25%), other chemical products (+17.50%), and nitrogen fertilizers (+16.54%) [14][17]. Supply-Side Insights - The report notes that 112 companies in the chemical sector had their production capacities affected, with 7 new maintenance shutdowns and 4 restarts reported [7]. - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with major producers like Wanhua Chemical, BASF, Covestro, Huntsman, and Dow controlling 90.85% of global capacity [6]. Key Recommendations - Focus on synthetic biology, particularly companies like Kasei Biotech and Huaheng Biological, which are seen as industry leaders [1]. - In the refrigerant market, companies with high quota shares such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Haohua Technology, and Yonghe Co. are expected to benefit from the upcoming high prosperity cycle [1]. - The report suggests monitoring the COC polymer production segment, recommending companies like AkzoNobel for potential breakthroughs in domestic production [3]. Price Trends - The report indicates that potassium fertilizer prices are expected to bottom out and recover due to supply reductions and increased demand from farmers [4]. - The report also highlights that the price of MDI remains stable despite economic downturns, with significant profit margins still achievable [6].