有色金属行业周报：国内宏观政策超预期，金属价格迎来涨势

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Insights - Domestic macro policies have exceeded expectations, leading to a rise in metal prices. The market anticipates a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, with geopolitical risks in the Middle East enhancing safe-haven demand for precious metals [2][11]. - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 15.70%, underperforming the CSI 300 index [19][22]. - Key stocks to watch include Zijin Mining, Zhongjin Gold, and Shandong Gold for gold, and Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum for copper [2][12][16]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The market is betting on a 50 basis point rate cut in November, with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increasing safe-haven demand. Gold prices are expected to continue rising due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the Fed's confirmed direction towards rate cuts [2][11]. - Recommended stocks include Zhongjin Gold, Zijin Mining, and Shandong Gold, with a focus on undervalued stocks like Zhuhai Mining and Yulong Co. [2][11]. Industrial Metals - Industrial metal prices are rising due to a combination of domestic and international macroeconomic factors. The Fed's recent rate cut has initiated a global monetary easing cycle, positively impacting metal prices [2][12][13]. - Copper prices are supported by a tight supply-demand balance, with global copper inventories at 463,800 tons, down 14,800 tons week-on-week [12][13]. - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum for copper, and China Aluminum and China Hongqiao for aluminum [12][15]. New Energy Metals - The price of lithium carbonate is rising due to favorable macroeconomic conditions, although the main contract has only briefly surpassed 80,000 yuan. Supply issues are noted with a slight reduction in output due to maintenance at lithium mines [2][16]. - Recommended stocks include Salt Lake Co., Cangge Mining, and Yongxing Materials [2][16]. Other Metals - The rare earth market shows positive sentiment ahead of the holiday, with prices for light rare earths increasing due to tight supply. The report suggests a potential improvement in the rare earth market in 2024 [2][17][19]. - Recommended stocks include Hunan Gold and China Rare Earth [2][19]. Market Review - The non-ferrous metals index rose by 15.70%, with the lithium battery chemical sector showing the largest gains. Top-performing stocks include Defang Nano and Tianqi Lithium [19][22]. Valuation - As of September 27, the non-ferrous metals industry has a PE (TTM) of 19.44 times, with the aluminum sector expected to see valuation increases due to supply constraints and the rising value of green metals [25][27].