9.24政策组合出台有望改善居民现金流

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the real estate industry, indicating an expected return greater than 5% relative to the market benchmark index [3][49]. Core Insights - The real estate sector index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 4.4% in the 39th week, with a weekly increase of 20.1%, while the CSI 300 index rose by 15.7% [9][10]. - The People's Bank of China announced significant policy changes on September 24, including a reduction in existing mortgage rates by approximately 0.5 percentage points and a decrease in the minimum down payment for second homes from 25% to 15% [12][13]. - New home sales in 44 major cities increased by 98.7% compared to the previous week, totaling 21,600 units, while second-hand home sales rose by 39.5% to 16,600 units [15][20]. - The average land premium rate in 36 major cities increased to 6.4%, reflecting a 1.4% rise from the previous week, despite a decrease in land transaction volume [25][32]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 39th week, the real estate sector index closed at 2136.34, with a weekly increase of 20.1%, while the CSI 300 index closed at 3703.68, up 15.7% [9][10]. - The sector's performance was stronger than the CSI 300 but weaker than the ChiNext index, which saw a weekly increase of 22.7% [9][10]. Policy Developments - The central bank's announcement included lowering existing mortgage rates to align with new loan rates, expected to reduce household interest payments by approximately 150 billion yuan annually [39][41]. - The support ratio for the 300 billion yuan affordable housing re-loan program was increased from 60% to 100%, aimed at enhancing market incentives [39][41]. Sales and Inventory Data - New home sales in major cities reached 21,600 units, marking a significant increase, while second-hand home sales also saw a notable rise [15][20]. - Inventory levels in 18 major cities increased to 937,000 units, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 25.6 months, indicating a longer time to sell existing stock [20][21]. Land Market Activity - The land market saw a decrease in activity, with only 32 plots sold across 36 major cities, and total land transfer fees dropped to 17.1265 billion yuan, down 154.4 billion yuan from the previous week [25][32]. - The average premium rate for land transactions increased, indicating a competitive bidding environment despite the overall decline in transaction volume [25][32].