基础化工行业周报：丙烯酸甲酯、天然橡胶、焦炭价格上涨，万华化学万吨改扩建项目环评公示48EDC

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The global chemical industry is experiencing an upward trend in long cycles, with significant changes occurring on the supply side. European companies are facing substantial profit declines due to rising costs and aging equipment, leading to accelerated capacity exits. Domestic outdated capacity is at a breakeven point, and stricter environmental inspections and energy consumption standards are expected to clear out this capacity. New capacity additions in China are nearing their peak, and future capital expenditures are likely to decline. Demand is improving both externally and domestically, indicating that the global chemical cycle has bottomed out. Chinese leading enterprises are showing clear cost and efficiency advantages and are in a phase of expanding market share, which will positively impact their performance [2][4] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - As of September 26, 2024, the Guohai Chemical Prosperity Index is at 95.48, a decrease of 0.47 from September 19 [1] Investment Opportunities 1. Low-Cost Expansion Targets: Key companies include Wanhua Chemical, Linglong Tire, Sailun Tire, and others [2] 2. Industries with Rising Prosperity: Focus on tire equipment, refrigerants, polyester filament, phosphate rock, and others [2] 3. New Materials Sector: Emphasis on sectors with rapid growth and low domestic production rates, such as PI films and electronic chemicals [4] 4. High Dividend State-Owned Enterprises: Companies like PetroChina and Sinopec are highlighted for their stable returns [4] 5. Real Estate Supply Chain: Investment opportunities in chemical products benefiting from real estate policy support [4] Price Movements - Recent price increases include: - Acrylic acid methyl ester: 9000 CNY/ton, up 16.13% week-on-week [6] - Natural rubber: 17200 CNY/ton, up 4.56% week-on-week [6] - Coking coal: 1515 CNY/ton, up 3.41% week-on-week [7] Key Company Updates - Wanhua Chemical announced an environmental impact assessment for its 480,000-ton/year EDC expansion project [8] - Sailun Tire is undergoing a merger of its subsidiaries, which will not affect the project investment amount [8] Market Performance - The basic chemical sector outperformed the CSI 300 index over the past month, with a 14.2% increase compared to 12.1% for the index [2]