煤炭开采行业周报：煤价偏强运行，终端需求存在持续补库需求

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal mining industry is expected to remain in a tight balance for the coming years, characterized by high asset quality, abundant cash flow, and strong profitability among listed companies [1] - The report highlights ongoing structural shortages in the industry, with prices for both thermal and coking coal showing upward trends due to stable demand and supply constraints [1][30] - Key investment opportunities are identified in various categories, including high-quality performance stocks and integrated coal-electricity companies [1] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - Thermal coal prices have shown a slight increase, with the Qinhuangdao port price reaching 867 RMB/ton, up 1 RMB from the previous week [8][9] - Demand from non-electric sectors continues to rise, while power plant consumption has slightly decreased, leading to a small inventory build-up at ports [8][13] - The overall supply remains tight, supporting price stability, with expectations for continued demand leading up to the National Day holiday [1][8] 2. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are on the rise, with the main coking coal price at Jing Tang port increasing to 1780 RMB/ton, up 10 RMB from the previous week [31] - The average crossing volume at Ganqimaodu port has increased, indicating improved supply dynamics [30][35] - Market sentiment is positive, with steel companies actively replenishing inventories ahead of the holiday [30] 3. Key Companies and Performance Forecast - The report lists several companies with strong performance metrics, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, all rated as "Buy" [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for these companies indicate stable growth, with China Shenhua projected at 2.94 RMB for 2024 [4] 4. Water and Hydropower Situation - The Three Gorges Reservoir's outflow has decreased, impacting overall hydropower generation, which may influence coal demand for electricity generation [27][28]